Do cyber operations have an impact on the course of war? Do the dynamics of cyberspace complement the developments on the ground?

Existing political science research argues that the answer to both questions is no, as the two modes of conflict generally exist independently from each other due to the force synchronisation challenge. Industry experts, however, dispute this independence argument, suggesting a complementary use of cyber-operations in support of military strategic and tactical objectives. 

One of the main reasons for these competing views comes from a poor exchange of knowledge and lack of integration between social scientists and the technical community. For this talk, Dr Nadiya Kostyuk presents her research using new events data – the Internet Outage Detection and Analysis dataset and the Violent Incident Information from News Articles dataset – to produce the first quantitative analysis of the tactical use of cyber and kinetic military operations during a large-scale conventional war. 

Her research uses Russia's war in Ukraine to bridge the two worlds and conduct a preliminary survey of a live cyber conflict. Specifically, Nadiya uses recent innovations in Internet measurement data to understand the tactical effects of cyber operations and disruptions in Internet connectivity on battlefield dynamics during war. 

This event will be moderated by Professor Ciaran Martin.